Last Call: a book political junkies of all stripes can enjoy immensely

I just finished reading the book Last Call, which is comprehensive history of Prohibition from the very beginnings of anti-alcohol movements in the 1800s to repeal in the 1930s and its effects beyond that.

This is without a doubt the most entertaining and informative political and history book I have read in years. And anyone who enjoys politics can enjoy it, be they left, right, or something else. The events and controversies in this book took place so long ago (80-150 years ago) that even though Republicans and Democrats are involved both parties are mostly unrecognizable to their current adherents, but still similar enough to their modern counterparts to keep it interesting.

This book has everything, and I do mean everything. Some gems, without giving away any of the books' reading enjoyment, include:

• The surprisingly large effect apportionment and the state of district maps of both Congress and the state legislatures had on both enactment and repeal of Prohibition
• How Congress blatantly violated the Constitution for a full decade, in order to protect Prohibition. It's surprising this isn't more well known.
• The role and operations of pressure groups on both sides of the issue, and how amazingly similar they are to today's pressure group operations. You've probably never heard of Wayne Wheeler which is a shame because he is the political ancestor of Karl Rove, James Carville, and everyone of that ilk.
• The role of the KKK in American society then. And no, contrary to popular belief it wasn't just Southerners or Democrats who allied with them. Not by a long shot
• The role of the Catholic and Jewish religions and Americans' views of them in shaping politics and society
  
• Why none of these three things could have happened without the other two: The income tax, Prohibition, and women's suffrage. The links and interrelationships between these three are fascinating
• Why Henry Ford and other big businessmen flip flopped on Prohibition
• Reading quotes from politicians, both on the left and the right, that would be positively cringe-inducing and career ending now.
• Why it's probably not a good idea for modern day liberals to adopt the term "progressive"
• A serious and factual investigation into Joseph Kennedy's past, with results that may surprise you
• An era when the sheer weight of hypocrisy could actually end a law, even a constitutional amendment
• A reminder of how it is possible for Congress to get a constitutional amendment ratified without cooperation of the state legislatures.
• Why St. Pierre in Canada was the place to be, moreso than anyplace else in Canada
• Can you imagine a time when the federal government was so skinflint Congress refused to appropriate funds to enforce federal law? And it wasn't for any other reason than they were too cheap, it wasn't resistance to the law itself

I could go on and on with so much more but I think the point is made that there is not a dull moment or an uninteresting thing in this book, for a reader with an interest in politics.

I also learned recently that Ken Burns is going to be doing a miniseries on Prohibition. It's apparently loosely based on this book in that he and author shared some research, but it is not a collaboration between them so it may provide a different perspective. I'm looking forward to it.

Will Bob Atwater switch to the NC House?

Here is the new NC House map:

And here is the old NC Senate map:

Why did I put the new house map next to the old senate map? Compare new house district 54 with old Senate district 18. They are very similar. Note that if you bring up the new house map in the detailed district viewer, new house district 54 contains more of Sanford than the picture above implies. -- but not district 51 rep Mike Stone's house, which is on the west side of U.S. 1.

Given that Bob Atwater and Ellie Kinnaird have been drawn into new Senate district 23 together, and the new district 23 appears to favor Ms. Kinnaird since it includes Chapel Hill, and that new house district 54 not only looks a lot like Bob's old Senate district, but also has no incumbent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bob Atwater concede the senate seat to Ellie Kinnaird and switch to the house and run for new district 54.

Bob's already familiar with campaigning in Sanford and it seems to me he would have a better chance in new house 54, than in a primary against Ellie Kinnaird in a district that includes Chapel Hill.

That's my guess just from looking at the maps, I haven't spoken to either of them or anyone on either of their teams.

A Gerrymandering "work of art"

It's no wonder the NC GOP waited until the Friday before the fourth of July weekend to drop their redistricting map on the public. Nate Silver said it best when he tweeted:

GOP gerrymander in NC is a work of art. State voted for Obama, but McCain won between 56-58% of the vote in 10 of 13 new districts.

That just about sums it up, and not a whole lot more needs to be said.

Except that I will say some things, because redistricting is just too interesting to me leave it alone. It's one of my strongest political interests. Maps, numbers, history -- what more could you want?

First of all, here's the proposed GOP map:

And here's the map as it currently stands, which the GOP map will be replacing:

My comments:

1. Obviously, gerrymandering is in the eye of the beholder. For two decades the GOP and their conservative allies have whined about the 12 district, calling it the ugliest gerrymander in the country. So now that the GOP has a chance to do something about it, what do they do? They make it even more weirdly shaped, stretched out, and squiggly than it was before. Not only that, but they take the 4th district, which was one of the most compact ones in the state, and transform it to make it look much like the 12th. So now we two snake-shaped districts instead of one, courtesy of the same GOP that complained about the shape of the 12th for 20 years.
2. Brad Miller (13th district Democrat) is toast. This is not an insightful observation, it's been obvious from the beginning that the GOP was going to target him and they did. That said, it's hard to feel sorry for Brad Miller, even though he's a fellow Democrat. First of all, I can't think of any way in which he's distinguished himself in Congress. But most of all, we have to remember how he got that seat in the first place. As chair of the Democratic legislature's redistricting committee in 2001, he custom-drew it for himself. He also drew the Republican who is now chairing the redistricting committee out of his seat in the legislature. Revenge is a dish best served cold, but also: what the redistricting pen giveth, the redistricting pen taketh away. Bye-bye Brad, hope you enjoyed your 10 year run.
3. Heath Shuler is more screwed than I expected. For at least 30 years, the 11th district has been one of the most compact and regularly shaped districts in the state. It was also reliably Republican, until Shuler took it in 2006, and surprisingly easily won re-election in 2008 and 2010. Well the Republicans have exacted their revenge by removing Asheville from the district (notice how district 10 reaches up and grabs it). Asheville is the most Democratic place in western NC and was likely Shuler's base. Now he's lost it.
4. Asheville is just as screwed as Shuler. It's now stuck in Patrick Henry's district, one of the most Republican in the state represented by one of the most extreme wingnuts in Congress. Talk about a bad fit, but the intention wasn't to make a fit -- it was to deprive Heath Shuler of Asheville's Democrats, and bury them in a district where they will no influence. It's pure gerrymandering genius.
5. Rene Ellmers, whom the Daily Kos aptly called "one of the dimmest bulbs in the freshman class" has hit the lottery. Remember she barely squeaked by a tired and damaged Bob Etheridge to win district 2. Now it's been redrawn to keep her safe. The good news, for me personally, is that she will no longer represent me, with Chatham County drawn out of her district. I'm happy to not be represented by her.
6. If he hasn't already, David Price (4th district Democrat) can go ahead and buy a house in DC. The new map ensures his continued tenure, as the mapmakers crammed every Democrat they could from the Triangle and its surrounding area into his district, to make the ones around him more Republican. He got Chapel Hill, Durham, the northeastern Chatham County, the area of Wake county where NC State and Meredith are as well as the areas around the SAS institute where the educated high tech voters live. Yes his district now looks like District 12 Junior, but it's safe for him.

So what do I really think?

After all that you may think I hope the map gets thrown out, or think it's beyond the pale. Well I don't. Yes it royally screws Democrats, and it's an ugly looking gerrymander, and it exposes the hypocrisy of decades of GOP whining about Democratic maps. But Democrats have been doing it for 140 years.

Now after all this time the Republicans control redistricting, and you bet they are going to maximize their advantage and do all they can to make up for all those decades of Democratic gerrymandering. Redistricting is the ultimate example of "to the victor goes the spoils" and by winning the legislature for the first time in over 100 years last year, the NC GOP has earned the right to draw their maps. We shouldn't expect them to show restraint that our party never showed.

Democrats inadvertently complicit in their own redistricting slaughter

Besides, the NC Democrats are complicit in their current situation. Recall that the governor of NC has no veto power over district maps.

Why is that?

Because when the Democratic-controlled legislature amended the NC constitution in 1996 to give the governor the veto, they figured they would always control the legislature but that the Governor could be a Republican. So they made sure the Governor had no say in this process.

Now it's 15 years later and oops -- we have a GOP legislature with a Democratic Governor who is forced to sit helplessly on the sidelines while the GOP carves up the spoils of NC redistricting.

Talk about an example of trying to fix the system in your favor, backfiring.