Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Will Bob Atwater switch to the NC House?


Here is the new NC House map:


And here is the old NC Senate map:









Why did I put the new house map next to the old senate map? Compare new house district 54 with old Senate district 18. They are very similar. Note that if you bring up the new house map in the detailed district viewer, new house district 54 contains more of Sanford than the picture above implies. -- but not district 51 rep Mike Stone's house, which is on the west side of U.S. 1.

Given that Bob Atwater and Ellie Kinnaird have been drawn into new Senate district 23 together, and the new district 23 appears to favor Ms. Kinnaird since it includes Chapel Hill, and that new house district 54 not only looks a lot like Bob's old Senate district, but also has no incumbent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bob Atwater concede the senate seat to Ellie Kinnaird and switch to the house and run for new district 54.

Bob's already familiar with campaigning in Sanford and it seems to me he would have a better chance in new house 54, than in a primary against Ellie Kinnaird in a district that includes Chapel Hill.

That's my guess just from looking at the maps, I haven't spoken to either of them or anyone on either of their teams.

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